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Why Do So Many Mass Killings Occur in April?
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Correction: Meant DoE stats weight against April hypothesis
Posted by Paul Konstadt 4/6/2009 5:04:06 PM

in the post just below. Sorry

DoJ stats weigh against the April hypothesis
Posted by Paul Konstadt 4/6/2009 5:01:14 PM

Just finished counting the incidents tallied in the DoJ report Al cited. There were 36 school violence incidents counted over the 10 month school year. Among the months with full school calendars, only May and December appear significantly different than average, with eight incidents in each month. Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, and Nov each tallied three, and Oct, 5. September had one incident and June none, but those months have only partial exposure.

Look in a different direction people
Posted by Lynn McMahon 4/6/2009 4:47:41 PM

You are all looking under the "lamp post" and I think the answers you are looking for are in the alley -- the mental health arena. Contact NAMI, DBSA. any govt agency dealing with mental health, etc. I think you will find that what Al has suggested is much more accurate than you think. If you link these events to the basic mechanics of the way severe mental illness cycles through the seasons, along with daylight savings time complicating the whole seasonal change, I think you will find a good story with plenty of facts to back it up.

Not so Much
Posted by Al Tompkins 4/6/2009 1:15:31 PM

There have been studies linking end of the school year with violence. http://74.125.93.104/search?q=cache:UPbEbNEKDCkJ:www.bridgew.edu/MARC/Shootings_more_common.pdf+school+violence+end+of+school+year&cd=9&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a

Lots of shootings occur at smaller schools too. The West Paducah shooting, the Jonesboro Arkansas shooting, Lancaster, PA Amish school, Red Lake Indian Reservation, Springfield, Ore, Fayetteville, Tenn, Pearl, Miss.

(list-http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2006-10-02-school-shootings_x.htm)

Interestingly, as I look at the list it is evenly split spring and fall events.

In 2002, the U.S. Secret Service completed the Safe School Initiative, a study of school shootings and other school-based attacks that was conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Education. The study examined school shootings in the United States as far back as 1974 http://www.ustreas.gov/usss/ntac_ssi.shtml

This is almost astrology now
Posted by Alex Dering 4/6/2009 12:41:13 PM

I don't know if worldwide school calendars might play into this.

I'm going out on a very short limb here: No, they do not.

Remember the old joke about the guy who loses his keys in a dark alley but looks for them over by the lamp post? Because it's easier to search under the light.

When someone finally goes bugf--- crazy enough to start shooting people at random, he isn't going to drive to the local school, find it empty for the summer, and snap his fingers and say, "Dang! I'd best come back in two months." He goes to the nearest place with a lot of people: shopping center, movie theater, whatever.

As for "What I mean is if schools closed in some countries, say in May, and you believed the 'hurry up and settle the score before school ends' theory, then March might be a hot month for killings in some places where April is in places where school lets out later."

Again, a short limb. No. I believe that the cause of all these school shooting is direcly correlated to the size of the school. How many thousands of students went to Columbine? It was in the thousands, wasn't it? And how often are the shooters described as "picked on" or "bullied" etc.?

Like I said, that's what I believe. But I haven't done the research to back up that belief, so I'm not going to conflate my opinion with fact and try to turn it into an article. That's lazy, sloppy and dangerous.

A possible reason
Posted by Al Tompkins 4/6/2009 10:37:22 AM

If you look, for example, at the school shootings from 1996-2009 (worldwide) you would find of the 57 incidents 8 happened in February, 11 in March, 8 in April and 4 in May. November and October logged four each.
I don't know if worldwide school calendars might play into this. What I mean is if schools closed in some countries, say in May, and you believed the "hurry up and settle the score before school ends" theory, then March might be a hot month for killings in some places where April is in places where school lets out later.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0777958.html

You also might take note of the number of killings that feed on dates. The linkage between the Waco killings and the Oklahoma City bombing for example. Columbine and Va tech may have linkage given that Cho mentioned the Columbine killings. Can these kinds of events perpetuate others around the same date?

Nobody, that I know of, by the way, is suggesting that the awful Binghamton event is in any way linked to another event.

It is not to say that April is more deadly than any other--I dont know if it is. I suppose there is a study to be done calendaring lone shooters of multiple victims versus other kinds of killers like the September 11th attacks, mass executions in Bosnia, Rwanda, Germany, Poland, Japan and Cambodia.

More than just anecdotes?
Posted by Erik Gable 4/6/2009 10:21:48 AM

I agree with Alex Dering. I'd like to see actual statistics demonstrating that more such events happen in April than in other months, not just a smattering of highly memorable anecdotes, before I can accept even the initial premise of the article.

Also ... Associated Content? Really? What's next, "according to Wikipedia"? (Actually, that might be more reliable, not less. At least Wikipedia articles are theoretically vetted by a large community. All we know about this story is that it was written by somebody named Cookie, whose other Associated Content articles are about Valentine's Day shopping, scholarships for high school students, and "holiday party appetizers for the non-cook.")

Interestingly, the Columbus Dispatch story acknowledges that a link between April and violence is unlikely, then proceeds to spend the rest of the story talking about possible causes for this trend that it's already acknowledged probably doesn't exist.

flawed hypothesis
Posted by Rajiv Medanki 4/4/2009 11:12:37 PM

The relationship between weather and suicide and homicide has been extensively studied for nearly 100 years .

Why do you link to articles that cite "expert opinion", when, with a little more effort, you could link to original scientific studies on the matter: Brearley (1932), Rock & Greenberg, Ajdacic-Gross,Cheatwood etc.

Yes, there is a temperature-crime link, but there are also plenty of weaknesses with this hypothesis, and the piece you link to does not refer to any of them.

Many journalists cite "expert opinion" as evidence in itself, but the value of such opinion depends on the level/strength of evidence underlying the opinion.

Btw, what is the point of having a comments section when you do not acknowledge or refute legitimate criticism ?

Here is the answer
Posted by Pete Skiba 4/4/2009 2:27:18 PM

Mass murderers really really like poetry, particularly T.S. Eliot.

Or is it cliches they like? Maybe both?

This is baloney ...
Posted by Alex Dering 4/4/2009 10:15:31 AM

Al,

I'm sorry, but this sounds like the biggest piece of cherrypicking I've seen on Poynter in quite some time.

Columbine et al. occurred in April, but until someone actually goes out and compiles a list of mass murders and charts them by month, I'm not buying it.

If this is an example of what "Associated Content" produces, well, it's time to lift a glass in sad, fond memory to journalism and its standards.

Circadian Rhythm & DST ??
Posted by Larry Albert 4/3/2009 9:17:18 PM

Circadian rhythm may be upset with the change to Daylight Saving Time.

That is my .02 USD worth.

Probably worth a mention in a column ...

My advice is free, and possibly overpriced.

Albert

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