Is there really an
Iowa bounce in New Hampshire, or do New Englanders march to their own beat?
Neatorama pulls together some history over the last 30 years:
- Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently the party’s nomination: 62.5% ( 5 out of 8 )
- Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently win the election: 12.5% ( 1 out of 8 )
- Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the New Hampshire primary and subsequently the party’s nomination: 75% ( 6 out of 8 )
- Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the New Hampshire primary and subsequently win the election: 25% ( 2 out of 8 )
- Percentage of Republican candidates that win the New Hampshire primary and subsequently the party’s nomination: 75% ( 6 out of 8 )
- Percentage of Republican candidates that win the New Hampshire primary and subsequently win the election: 50% ( 4 out of 8 )
It seems that the Iowa caucus is more effective in determining who the party nomination will be for Republicans than it is for Democrats (75% vs. 62.5%). The New Hampshire primary does a slightly better job determining the nomination from both parties.
The New Hampshire primary seems to be a better predictor of the election winners for both Democrats and Republicans than the Iowa caucus. This is especially true for the Republicans, as
they’ve won five out of the last eight elections. Another way to say it is: If a Republican won the presidential election, then it’s more likely
the candidate won the New Hampshire primary than the Iowa caucus.
