Is it possible that we are talking about recession and the depressed housing market so much that we are talking ourselves into a hole?
Toll Brothers -- one of the nation's biggest luxury homebuilders -- says yes. While announcing another big revenue drop, Toll Brothers said there are lots of buyers waiting to buy, but they are being scared off by a steady drumbeat of bad news.
MarketWatch reports:
Toll said all the discussion of whether the economy's in recession is
dampening the mood of consumers, though it noted "glimmers of hope" in
a few markets, including Naples, Fla., and the Washington, D.C.,
suburbs.
"Ceaseless talk of a
recession continues to dampen the mood of consumers in general, whether
or not a recession actually occurs. For home buyers, we believe this
drumbeat, coupled with concerns over mortgages, the direction of home
prices, and foreclosures, has kept pent-up demand on the sidelines,"
said Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive, in a statement.
I suspect you could find real estate agents who would agree with this. Look at
this passage from
The (Chesterfield, Va.,) Observer:
The mood among
real estate agents and home builders at last week's Home Building
Association of Richmond local forecast seminar could be summed up this
way: with interest rates low, plenty of homes for sale and the Richmond
area growing, the only reason the housing market isn't good here is the
bad news media. They mostly blamed national media attention on the
housing slump, but also mentioned the local daily newspaper.
"The
media should be reporting how low rates are, the supply of homes on the
market and the special incentives that are being offered," grumbled one
seasoned agent.
Look at the following two paragraphs from a Reuters story this week. I added the bold emphasis to make a point about the words we choose to use.
Fear among U.S. consumers and businesses that the world's richest
economy could go into a recession, or may already be in one, could help
push the economy over the edge and bring on an even deeper, longer
downturn.
In the final three months of 2007, the economy screeched to a near
standstill, dragged down by what many economists say is the worst
housing slump since the Great Depression.
Media watch groups have complained for years that good economic news is often buried beneath bad news.
This week, Reuters published a piece about how just the fear of a recession can deliver one to your doorstep:
"While a self-fulfilling prophecy isn't going to be a cause for the
recession, I think it can make it worse and I think it very likely
will," said Stephanie Madon, an associate professor of psychology at
Iowa State University who has studied self-fulfilling prophecy behavior.
"One of the things we know people do is that they tend to seek out information that they believe is already true," Madon said.
... Poster Juli is a real estate agent, a former...
