People who know me know that my two favorite days of the year are Derby Day and July 4.
I want you to take tomorrow off. Throw or attend a Derby party. I will provide you with enough background for you to sound intelligent. I will interview myself for this article:
Q. What kind of horses will be running this race?
A. They are three-year-old thoroughbreds. They started racing when they were two. To get into this race, a horse has to have won some pretty impressive races. Most race several races as a two-year-old. The exception is
Big Brown, (the favorite), who had some problems with hoof cracks when he was younger. He is, as we say, "lightly raced." But Curlin was lightly raced last year and became the
Horse of the Year (although he didn't win the Derby.)
Q. How long is the race?A. One and a quarter miles. You will sometimes hear horse races
described in "furlongs." A furlong is 220 yards. So there are eight furlongs in a mile. The Derby is 10 furlongs. It will take about two minutes to run. The fastest Derby ever was Secretariat's 1:59 win. Most Derby wins are in the 2:02 range.
Here is a viewing tip: Watch the "splits." These are the times that the leader passes the 1/4 miles, 1/2 mile, 3/4 mile and one mile poles. These times will appear on the TV screen while the race is being run.
Q. Who should I bet on and why?A. You probably should not bet at all. Twenty horses are too many, and anybody can win in a field this crowded. But some bets are better than others.
I like Pyro, but he had a horrible last race and finished 10th. That is not the way you want to see a contender prep for the race of his life. He won his first race (called a maiden race) at Churchill Downs, where the Derby is run.
Eight Belles is the only filly (female) in the field. She has an inside starting position, which means she will get jostled around on the start. She is a huge horse. Fillies generally do not win the Derby, but Genuine Risk did. She is strong, and her trainer is from near my hometown in Kentucky. She may go off with 20:1 odds. I think she will place in the money if she has an easy enough trip.
Big Brown is clearly the fastest horse, but he is running from the worst possible place -- the 20th position. He will have to rocket to the lead right out of the starting gate. His daddy was a sprinter, so he does have early speed, but he cannot burn himself out too fast. His breeding would not indicate that he has a mile and a quarter in him, but sometimes horses outperform their bloodline. (Sometimes people do, too.) No horse has won from the 20th position in 90 years. I think it is asking an awful lot of Big Brown to do this. He has won three out of three races, just like Curlin last year. He may "show," but I just don't think he will win.
Colonel John. This is the horse for me. He has had a sizzling week of workouts. He is a big closer. He has run in six races and never finished lower than second. He is hot off a win at the Santa Anita Derby.
Click here to read how he got his name. Q. Are there long shots that I should consider?A. With a 20 horse field -- absolutely!
Denis of Cork will break out of the 15th position. He finished an unimpressive fifth in the Illinois Derby a few weeks ago but had three wins before that. In February he was running 18th and still won with a huge kick. Denis is the grandson of a great sire "Storm Cat." Good blood. The jockey will be last year's winner
Calvin Borel.
I think Monba has been overlooked. After a terrible race early this year, he won the Blue Grass Stakes last month. That is hot. There is a problem. Monba likes polytrack, a synthetic track that is easier on the legs. Churchill is dirt. This could be a problem.
Visionaire has a great finishing kick. If he can get a clean run and not get blocked up in traffic, and if Big Brown doesn't run everybody ragged in the early running, Visionaire could be there for a duel.
There is a beautiful story that should force you to consider
Smooth Air. His 70-year-old trainer has waited his whole life to get to the Derby. He has only six horses in his care. Smooth Air is not really a mile and a quarter kind of horse, but a roaring crowd can make horses do strange things. This horse has run seven times with three wins, but it would be a reasonable long shot pick to couple with a front-runner.
Q. What should I wear when watching the Derby? A. Even if you are watching alone, be sure to wear
a big hat. You can't go wrong.
Q. Should I drink a mint julep?
No. Hell no. They are awful. Real Kentuckians consider them to be a waste of bourbon. Never put sugar in your whiskey. Never.
