How hard is it to find work? What would you find if you followed different jobless people -- a skilled tradesman, a secretary, an executive and a new graduate -- on their search for work?
An economist predicted yesterday that a decline in the U.S. housing market will cost 800,000 jobs next year. There was also a report that Ford was ready to cut 300,000 jobs and close 10 plants in the next five years.
At the same time, a team of University of Michigan economists said the Hurricane Katrina recovery work will help to create thousands of new jobs nationwide in the next couple of years. In the last couple of days, I have seen similar forecasts for job growth from researchers in Colorado. Scripps Howard News Service said:
Recent polls, including one released by Gallup in mid-November, show that most Americans don't share the administration's enthusiasm for the direction in which the economy is headed. That survey found only 37 percent assessing the nation's financial portrait as excellent or good while 63 percent rated it good or poor.
Did you hear what the White House was saying yesterday about the economy? Here is a transcript from Scott McClellan's press briefing:
Two-hundred-and-fifteen-thousand jobs were created in November. Nearly 4.5 million jobs have been created since May of 2003. The third-quarter GDP growth was at 4.3 percent. Consumer confidence and business investment are up. There are a lot of good signs about our economy.
Today we received more proof that our economy is very healthy, as we learned that productivity growth was up 4.7 percent in the third quarter. This represents the fastest productivity growth over a five-year period since World War II. And it's important to look at what this means for working families. More often than not, they mean -- higher productivity growth means higher wages, something that the President is very focused on.
The reason we are encouraged and optimistic about this productivity is that higher wages for American workers would be expected to be soon to follow.
The Scripps story says:
But for every good piece of news, it seems, there is countervailing data to create unease.
Rising fuel prices have left many Americans skittish, even though the hikes have leveled off in recent weeks. The average price of a gallon of gasoline nationwide as of Dec. 5, according to the federal Energy Information Agency, was almost $2.15. Families in colder climates have been left wondering how they can afford to pay for heating oil this winter.
"Despite solid economic growth, America's middle class is struggling," said Christian Weller, senior economist at the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based think tank. "The expanding economy has not translated into solid income gains. Instead, job growth has been anemic and wages have actually declined. To make ends meet, middle-class families have borrowed massive amounts of debt."
More critical is a decline in purchasing power, which is tied in some degree to the increased energy prices. The gross domestic product has increased steadily over the past few years and corporate profits remain healthy, rising more than 50 percent since the last quarter of 2001. But many Americans have seen their wallets grow thinner.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in a report released in September, real median household income fell for the third year in a row in 2004, dropping from $46,058 in 2001 to $44,389 in 2004, leaving workers with less money for expenses like gas, home heating oil, health care and education.
Making matters worse, real household income for the bottom 20 percent of earners declined by 7.9 percent from 2000 to 2004. Estimates for 2005 are not yet available, but economists expect that earnings likely haven't kept up with inflation.
And while the unemployment rate has remained around 5 percent for months, economists note the number of unemployed has increased from 6 million to 7.6 million since the start of the Bush presidency. That's because the economy has to create 150,000 new jobs each month to keep up with demand -- a goal that has not been consistently met over the past five years.
Toxic Cargo
The Press-Enterprise in Riverside, Calif., published a package of stories about the dangerous cargoes that trains are carrying through cities big and small. It is worth a look. I especially liked the interactive elements of the stories which showed what, for example, a community would do if a toxic chemical was released. Journalists should look at this to learn step by step how to report such an event.
The stories examine how dangerous cargo shipment times are being kept secret to avoid terrorists. But the secrecy also keeps you from knowing what is passing through your town.
In addition, the stories say, communities that the trains pass through do not have adequate emergency plans in case of a train crash and dangerous spill or chemical release. These large-scale wrecks have occurred coast to coast in America in the last couple of decades. (See a list.)
Sick Days Abuse
Al's Morning Meeting reader Pat Dooris, a reporter at KGW-TV in Portland, Ore., sent me a link to a story the station produced about how local government employees consistently call in sick just before or just after weekends. In one county, he found worker after worker taking 30 or more days of sick time per year in one- or two-day increments. The station didn't include those on Family leave or extended illness leave in the investigation. They were more interested in employees who take days off around weekends and found a surprising number who do. How does your local government monitor the use of sick days? Do you have a "use it or lose it" system that penalizes those who stay healthy and come to work?
Cross-Generational Daycare
The L.A. Times says about 500 daycare facilities around the country have discovered that when they care for old folks and little kids in the same facility good things can happen. It can be good for the seniors and very good for the children who get extra attention. This may be a trend story worth considering.
Churches Closed for Christmas
Churches are trying to figure out what to do about Christmas services this year. Christmas falls on Sunday this year (so does New Year's Day). Some megachurches are canceling Sunday worship services this Christmas because they say they will have just held Christmas Eve services the night before. The Associated Press says critics are howling. On the other hand, mainline Protestant congregations are expecting a huge turnout for Christmas Sunday services.
About One-Fifth of New Wireless Users Have No Landline Phone
A new study says:
New research by the Consumer Electronics Association shows a shift away from landlines to wireless phones for many consumers, particularly younger age groups, those who rent their homes and singles. A full 17 percent of consumers who purchased wireless phones in the last 90 days reported using their wireless phones exclusively.
"The Wireless Purchasing Study: Measuring Satisfaction and Loyalty" [study] also found the majority of consumers are satisfied with their wireless phone buying experience, which may be helping to increase the number of wireless-only households. The study found high satisfaction levels for in-person as well as online purchases of wireless phones. Respondents gave customer service representatives high marks for product and service knowledge, courtesy and availability.
Things to Think About
Here are 12,300 things to think about. Click on this link and you will "get it."
We are always looking for your great ideas. Send Al a few sentences and hot links.
Editor's Note: Al's Morning Meeting is a compendium of ideas, edited story excerpts and other materials from a variety of Web sites, as well as original concepts and analysis. When the information comes directly from another source, it will be attributed and a link will be provided whenever possible.
