7/12/2002 1:25:46 PM
Posted By:
Greg Brown
Every company that has tried to put itself between an existing company and its customer gets crushed, eventually. Microsoft will be no different. Why? Because Passport will be optional (I certainly opted out--I don't do Hotmail and have no plans to start) and it will be too easy for an existing financial outfit to do the same, more cheaply, and more quickly. Citibank, Amex, Visa, the list goes on. Unlike in the OS game, MSFT has no leverage, no ability to squeeze people in to their way, and lots of fat, healthy competitors who understand the game better and have, certainly, a lot more of the public's trust. I expect the same to happen in a number of venues MSFT is trying to horn in on, like cellular handsets (against Nokia, Sony/Ericsson and Docomo) and Web services (vs. IBM, Sun, and sixteen others). Even the Xbox is slipping like mad against Sony and Nintendo, getting price cuts and generally falling off the radar even at MSFT. Too bad, it's good technology, soon to be orphaned. The Age of Bill is over. He knows it. That's why he fled back to the lab: to cook up another market-slaying product. But he won't be able to get off a second act without monopoly pricing power to back him up, no matter how much cash he has to buy time in tough markets.
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