New York Observer | BarackObama.com
Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has urged supporters to disregard Nate Silver’s New York Times Magazine story, “Is Obama toast?” in which Silver handicaps the 2012 presidential race. “The Times piece assigns each [GOP candidate] a score on an ideological scale, ignoring the obvious reality that there has been virtually no difference among the GOP candidates,” Messina writes. Ideology of the Republican nominee was one of three factors in Silver’s analysis; the others were the economy and Obama’s approval rating. The New York Observer’s Chris Clemans writes that Silver’s story “gives President Obama slim chances of retaking the White House,” but it doesn’t. Silver presents four scenarios; Obama wins in two of them. Silver concludes that Obama has practically a 50/50 chance of winning re-election, “but with Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers.” In response to Messina’s email, Silver tweeted, “Obama campaign using my NYT Magazine piece as a bit of a strawman in a fundraising pitch.” The Times also created an interactive presentation that enables people to see how different economic situations would affect the race.