Tuesday September 18, 2001
What Will Consumers Do?
Will people want to go shopping in the midst of such circumstances? Will they want to take a vacation cruise this winter on a boat with 3,000 other people, all of them wondering what else is in the cargo hold besides their luggage? Will they want to take a plane anywhere, when simply getting checked in at the ticket counter can wind up taking five hours?
What conventions/meetings have been cancelled in your town? Call your conventions and tourism bureaus. Many are cancelling because (a) the uncertainty about airline schedules and b)people’s reluctance to fly.
So much attention was focused on the airline stocks Monday, but hotels and cruise lines took a walloping, too.
Mariott
Hilton
Four Seasons Hotel
Carnival Cruise
Online travel stock got hit hard too, some lost 40% of their value in one day:
Expedia
Priceline
Travelocity
Check what is happening to reservations at your local hotels, tourist attractions, theme parks, resorts.
According to web sites that track convention business worldwide, the attacks on the U.S. came during what is normally the most lucrative quarter for some of the world’s leading leisure companies, Park Place, MGM and Mandalay Resorts, which dominate Vegas. Their autumn revenues usually exceed $10 billion.
Here is the website of the American Hospitality and Lodging Association-the biggest such group in the U.S.
Gallup found: “Americans’ fear of air travel has clearly been shaken by Tuesday’s events. Polling since the attacks consistently finds slightly just under half of Americans responding that they are less likely to fly as a result of Tuesday’s events. Most recently, in Gallup’s September 14-15 survey, 43% said they are less willing to fly, similar to the 42% who told CNN/Time pollsters on Thursday that they will avoid flying on airplanes. In a related question, Gallup also finds close to half the public, 48%, less willing to travel overseas — perhaps combining fear of air travel with fears about safety abroad. To put all this in context, only 30% of Americans say they are less willing to attend events with large crowds of people and 35% are less willing to enter skyscrapers. Similarly, from the CNN/Time list of likely behaviors, it does not appear that Americans believe crowded places are per se dangerous, as only 14% indicate they are likely to avoid such areas as a result of Tuesday’s attacks.”
Personal Safety Issues — 51% of Americans Worried
Gallup found, “Tuesday’s attacks had the immediate effect of raising Americans’ fear of terrorism striking their own lives. That heightened concern continues to be evident in Gallup’s new survey, although it has diminished slightly in the days following Tuesday’s attacks.
In the new survey completed Friday and Saturday nights, these levels of concern had dropped slightly: 18% are very worried and 33% are somewhat worried — for a total 51% being fairly worried.”
I would keep an eye on gun sales, personal security system purchases, armed guard hiring, security company activity.
Defense Business Stocks Out the Roof Monday — any of these near you?
Check these big defense companies that make everything from bombers, missiles, bomb detection devices and rocket engines. All did well on Monday.
-General Dynamics
-Raytheon
-Northrop Grummon
-Lockheed
People Acting Human
In the hote, food, and beverage business there is a lot of folklore that in time of war or financial concerns hard liquor sales go up. When the economy improves, wine and light beer sales go up. The story goes that people, in tighter times, want more kick for their liquor buying dollar.
It will also be interesting to watch the casinos and lottery trends during these days. The old line of thinking was that people gamble more during wartime, but the Gulf War was not kind to Vegas. Drop me a note if you explore these angles and tell me what you find.
Trial Lawyers Seek Moratorium on Lawsuits
The president of the Assn. of Trial Lawyers of America is calling for a moratorium on the filing of civil lawsuits stemming from the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and the airline industry. In a Sept. 12 message posted on Washington-based ATLA’s Web site, Leo V. Boyle wrote that “we as a nation must speak at this hour with a single voice, a voice of compassion for the victims and a voice of authority to those who would tear down our society. “For this reason, for the first time in our history, the Assn. of Trial Lawyers of America, in this time of national crisis, urges a moratorium on civil lawsuits that might arise out of these awful events,” he wrote. Victor E. Schwartz, general counsel of the Washington-based American Tort Reform Assn., pointed out that federal law already calls for sanctions against lawyers who solicit business from the survivors of those killed in air crashes before a 45-day waiting period had passed. “We believe that when there is a tragedy, there should be a waiting period of at least 30 days” regardless of the cause, he said.
