In the closing hours of this election you will undoubtedly hear pundits talk about “The Bradley Effect” as a possible last-minute game changer that could cost Sen. Barack Obama the election.
The term “Bradley Effect” refers to the 1982 California governor’s race in which Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who was black, went into Election Day with an election-eve poll showing him seven points ahead of Republican George Deukmejian. Bradley ended up losing the race.
Race was the leading factor attributed to the upset. The explaination was that voters might say they would vote for a minority candidate but once inside the polling booth, would not.
But hold on a minute. A former senior strategist for Deukmejian says we have oversimplified what happened in 1982. He says there was a lot going on in the last days of that election that pollsters did not pick up on. The GOP, he says, put a huge amount of effort behind absentee voting, a late surge of fundraising and some new targeted commercials.
The Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports:
